As we continue to advise teams and gather data concerning the war in Ukraine and security incidents elsewhere, something is becoming very clear. The global system on which people almost everywhere depend for daily necessities is more interdependent and far more fragile than most of us realize.

As time permits, we hope to conduct more comprehensive research into the global impact that the war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions against Russia will have on this fragile system. For now, suffice it to say that the impact is likely to be severe for a number of regions in the 3-6 month time-frame, and significant for the United States and other western nations soon thereafter.

Due to a number of political and economic factors, it’s likely that prices for food and fuel will dramatically increase in the near term. This may impact the Middle East and Central Asia particularly hard. We anticipate this will have security implications as citizens protest rising prices, demand relief, and as those in these areas with the means to do so begin to hoard food and other essential resources. In turn, this may result in political chaos and conflict.

We anticipate that instability in these and other regions will cause governments in Europe and the United States to prioritize internal needs to even a greater degree than normal. This may add to instability elsewhere, and in turn cause citizens of more developed nations to panic buy food, fuel, and other essentials, thus creating shortages and increasing prices further.

We share this view not to cause panic, but to prevent it. There is still time in most regions, especially in the West, for people to calmly and thoughtfully prepare for the challenges that may be ahead. Even as we see prices rise, it needs to be understood that what seems expensive today may look very inexpensive six months from now in comparison, if it is available at all.

Again, we do not in any way suggest that anyone begin to panic or to purchase essentials beyond their means. We simply suggest that individuals and families consider stocking up on essentials as they have the means to do so. This would include food, water, medications, and other essentials. It would, of course, be ideal if families could have enough essentials on hand to last for six months or more, yet anything set aside would be better than nothing.

Aside from the pure essentials, if the means are available to do so it might be wise to invest in a generator. Some sources have suggested that periodic power outages may take place at some point due to a variety of factors. If you do purchase a portable generator, you will need enough 12/3 gauge extension cords to reach the items that you want to power. Note that generators should only be operated outdoor or in an open/very-well-ventilated garage or porch. Be sure to read and understand the safety instructions of any such product that you may purchase.

As we noted last week, our time for writing is very limited due to our efforts to gather data and advise teams concerning the war in Ukraine and security issues and incidents elsewhere. For some background insight into the variables that may impact food prices and availability soon, we recommend that you watch the short video titled, “Russia Ukraine is Causing a Global Food Crisis” on the TLDR News YouTube channel. We have no history or affiliation with this source, and thus we cannot recommend them for other videos, yet we found that the video noted above agrees with much of what we are learning.

We want to reiterate that there is no need for panic. Instead, this is a time when families should discuss the current global situation, and calmly make informed decisions about how they can best be prepared for any challenges that may occur. To learn more about being prepared, please see topic 01.02.05 (Residence Survival) of the Panoplia.org Soft Skills and Tactics (SST) online training Course.